 &MODEL
 NOPT    =           1,
 NLIST   =           0,
 NSTEP   =        5000,
 EPSI    =  1.000000000000000E-007,
 WGHT    =   1.00000000000000     ,
 NVAX    =         164,
 NWT     =         153,
 NALT    =           4,
 NDV     =           4,
 NSV     = 3*1, 7*0,
 NGV     =           4,
 INIT    =           0,
 NCON    =           0,
 NLAM    =           1,
 NFL     =           1,
 NPRINT  =           0,
 NELAST  =           1,
 NMRS    =           0,
 NRES    =           0,
 NCOR    =           0,
 NSCALE  =           0,
 NREAD   =        1000,
 NPRED   =           0,
 NAMEVT  = bus_log   ,
 NUMVT   =           5,
 NAMEDEP = CHOICE    
 /


LOGIT            

 alternative  matrix of independent variables

  1  RAIL         1   0   0 124 144 126  98

  2  AIR          0   1   0  15  35  17  98

  3  BUS          0   0   1  50  70  52  98

  4  CAR          0   0   0  71  78   0   0


 parameter associated with each column above

 beta             1   2   3   4   5   6   7

 lambda           0   0   0   1   1   1   1


 box-cox transformations

 lambda   type    value

   1       0     0.00000




=========================================================================================================

 no. variable    type       minimum      mean       maximum    std-error  avail.obs. null obs. scal.factor

=========================================================================================================

 alternative  1 : RAIL      

   1 CONSTANT            0.10000D+01 0.10000D+01 0.10000D+01 0.00000D+00     991          0   0.10000D+01
 124 RAI_CTT   network   0.20450D+02 0.53052D+02 0.10690D+03 0.17801D+02     991          0   0.10000D+01
 144 RAI_TTT   network   0.91000D+02 0.29299D+03 0.69100D+03 0.11777D+03     991          0   0.10000D+01
 126 RAI_FR    network   0.10000D+01 0.44057D+01 0.12000D+02 0.23283D+01     991          0   0.10000D+01
  98 INCOME    soc.eco.  0.50000D+04 0.54277D+05 0.70000D+05 0.17518D+05     991          0   0.10000D+01

 alternative  2 : AIR       

   1 CONSTANT            0.10000D+01 0.10000D+01 0.10000D+01 0.00000D+00     846          0   0.10000D+01
  15 AIR_CTT   network   0.11905D+03 0.15495D+03 0.22660D+03 0.21027D+02     846          0   0.10000D+01
  35 AIR_TTT   network   0.11300D+03 0.15794D+03 0.31600D+03 0.26539D+02     846          0   0.10000D+01
  17 AIR_FR    network   0.30000D+01 0.24974D+02 0.45000D+02 0.13682D+02     846          0   0.10000D+01
  98 INCOME    soc.eco.  0.50000D+04 0.55073D+05 0.70000D+05 0.17263D+05     846          0   0.10000D+01

 alternative  3 : BUS       

   1 CONSTANT            0.10000D+01 0.10000D+01 0.10000D+01 0.00000D+00     797          0   0.10000D+01
  50 BUS_CTT   network   0.93800D+01 0.25555D+02 0.56390D+02 0.86083D+01     797          0   0.10000D+01
  70 BUS_TTT   network   0.11900D+03 0.30407D+03 0.74900D+03 0.11464D+03     797          0   0.10000D+01
  52 BUS_FR    network   0.10000D+01 0.11832D+02 0.24000D+02 0.57920D+01     797          0   0.10000D+01
  98 INCOME    soc.eco.  0.50000D+04 0.54388D+05 0.70000D+05 0.17496D+05     797          0   0.10000D+01

 alternative  4 : CAR       

  71 CAR_C     network   0.11210D+02 0.60878D+02 0.18183D+03 0.32407D+02     999          0   0.10000D+01
  78 CAR_RT    network   0.47000D+02 0.21644D+03 0.63600D+03 0.10678D+03     999          0   0.10000D+01

=========================================================================================================


 number of observations :

 - read                    1000

 - used in estimation      1000

 - with a full choice set   690

 - used in prediction         0




initialization cards for control routine follow - - id card - no. parameters , no. steps , step size ,
minimization tolerance - starting values of parameters - relative uncertainties of parameters (error estimates) -   
and starting direction (relative parameter increments for 1st step) 

         7      5000   0.1D+01   0.1D-06
 -0.31442D+01 -0.15472D+01 -0.36002D+01  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00
  0.10000D+01  0.10000D+01  0.10000D+01  0.10000D+01  0.10000D+01  0.10000D+01  0.10000D+01
  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00

first entry to fcn , parameters of current step follow - - f,x(i)
   0.5237790618D+03 -0.31442D+01 -0.15472D+01 -0.36002D+01  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00

the function (fcn) has not improved by   0.10000D-06 after 3 steps which include a minimum - - -

therefore the run has been terminated
   0.3291106599D+03 -0.63588D+01 -0.51082D+01 -0.11321D+02 -0.35300D+01 -0.18319D+01  0.15329D+01  0.17518D+00

the lowest value of the function (fcn) was  0.3291106599D+03 for entry     42 - - x(i) follows
 -0.63588D+01 -0.51082D+01 -0.11321D+02 -0.35300D+01 -0.18319D+01  0.15329D+01  0.17518D+00



run statistics follow - -

 nfcn=     42 nst=     17





VARIANT NAME bus_log    VARIANT NUMBER   5 DEPENDENT VARIABLE NAME CHOICE    

 variable  type lambda    parameter      std.error          t-value    gradient


 alternative  1 : RAIL      

 CONSTANT  spec   0   -0.6358811D+01  0.2799782D+01        -2.2712  0.9467833D-05
                                      0.2799782D+01        -2.2712

 RAI_CTT   gene   1   -0.3529988D+01  0.1050531D+01        -3.3602 -0.1433790D-05
                                      0.1050531D+01        -3.3602

 RAI_TTT   gene   1   -0.1831864D+01  0.1051572D+01        -1.7420 -0.5342656D-05
                                      0.1051572D+01        -1.7420

 RAI_FR    gene   1    0.1532919D+01  0.2029255D+00         7.5541 -0.1196563D-04
                                      0.2029255D+00         7.5541

 INCOME    gene   1    0.1751804D+00  0.2567975D+00         0.6822 -0.3529753D-04
                                      0.2567975D+00         0.6822


 alternative  2 : AIR       

 CONSTANT  spec   0   -0.5108245D+01  0.3101251D+01        -1.6472 -0.3074203D-05
                                      0.3101251D+01        -1.6472

 AIR_CTT   gene   1   -0.3529988D+01  0.1050531D+01        -3.3602 -0.1433790D-05
                                      0.1050531D+01        -3.3602

 AIR_TTT   gene   1   -0.1831864D+01  0.1051572D+01        -1.7420 -0.5342656D-05
                                      0.1051572D+01        -1.7420

 AIR_FR    gene   1    0.1532919D+01  0.2029255D+00         7.5541 -0.1196563D-04
                                      0.2029255D+00         7.5541

 INCOME    gene   1    0.1751804D+00  0.2567975D+00         0.6822 -0.3529753D-04
                                      0.2567975D+00         0.6822


 alternative  3 : BUS       

 CONSTANT  spec   0   -0.1132099D+02  0.3043092D+01        -3.7202 -0.8476958D-05
                                      0.3043092D+01        -3.7202

 BUS_CTT   gene   1   -0.3529988D+01  0.1050531D+01        -3.3602 -0.1433790D-05
                                      0.1050531D+01        -3.3602

 BUS_TTT   gene   1   -0.1831864D+01  0.1051572D+01        -1.7420 -0.5342656D-05
                                      0.1051572D+01        -1.7420

 BUS_FR    gene   1    0.1532919D+01  0.2029255D+00         7.5541 -0.1196563D-04
                                      0.2029255D+00         7.5541

 INCOME    gene   1    0.1751804D+00  0.2567975D+00         0.6822 -0.3529753D-04
                                      0.2567975D+00         0.6822


 alternative  4 : CAR       

 CAR_C     gene   1   -0.3529988D+01  0.1050531D+01        -3.3602 -0.1433790D-05
                                      0.1050531D+01        -3.3602

 CAR_RT    gene   1   -0.1831864D+01  0.1051572D+01        -1.7420 -0.5342656D-05
                                      0.1051572D+01        -1.7420



 box-cox transformations


 lambda 1   fixed      0.0000000D+00

 ================================================================================



 log likelihood with constants only =   -523.7791

 log likelihood at convergence      =   -329.1107

 likelihood ratio test ( 4 d.f.)    =    389.3368

 sum of squared residuals           =    430.6294

 rho-squared                        =      0.3717

 rho-squared bar -akaike            =      0.3583

                 -horowitz          =      0.3650

                 -hensher & johnson =      0.3700

 per cent right         =   73.50

 number of observations = 1000

 number of alternatives =    4

 number of parameters   =    7





 at the sample means of x :

   - elasticity

   - change in p(i) relative to percent change in x(j,k)

   - derivative of p(i) with respect to x(j,k)

 =====================================================================================================================================

 probability of :        RAIL       AIR        BUS        CAR       

 =====================================================================================================================================

 RAIL        CONSTANT  -0.435D+01 -0.310D+01 -0.932D+01  0.201D+01
                       -0.303D+00 -0.761D+00 -0.254D+00  0.132D+01
                       -0.303D+00 -0.761D+00 -0.254D+00  0.132D+01

             RAI_CTT   -0.328D+01  0.246D+00  0.246D+00  0.246D+00
                       -0.229D+00  0.603D-01  0.671D-02  0.162D+00
                       -0.431D-02  0.114D-02  0.127D-03  0.305D-02

             RAI_TTT   -0.170D+01  0.128D+00  0.128D+00  0.128D+00
                       -0.119D+00  0.313D-01  0.348D-02  0.840D-01
                       -0.405D-03  0.107D-03  0.119D-04  0.287D-03

             RAI_FR     0.143D+01 -0.107D+00 -0.107D+00 -0.107D+00
                        0.994D-01 -0.262D-01 -0.292D-02 -0.703D-01
                        0.226D-01 -0.595D-02 -0.662D-03 -0.159D-01

             INCOME     0.115D+00  0.115D+00  0.115D+00 -0.600D-01
                        0.803D-02  0.283D-01  0.314D-02 -0.394D-01
                        0.148D-06  0.521D-06  0.579D-07 -0.727D-06

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AIR         CONSTANT  -0.435D+01 -0.310D+01 -0.932D+01  0.201D+01
                       -0.303D+00 -0.761D+00 -0.254D+00  0.132D+01
                       -0.303D+00 -0.761D+00 -0.254D+00  0.132D+01

             AIR_CTT    0.866D+00 -0.266D+01  0.866D+00  0.866D+00
                        0.603D-01 -0.654D+00  0.236D-01  0.570D+00
                        0.389D-03 -0.422D-02  0.153D-03  0.368D-02

             AIR_TTT    0.449D+00 -0.138D+01  0.449D+00  0.449D+00
                        0.313D-01 -0.339D+00  0.123D-01  0.296D+00
                        0.198D-03 -0.215D-02  0.776D-04  0.187D-02

             AIR_FR    -0.376D+00  0.116D+01 -0.376D+00 -0.376D+00
                       -0.262D-01  0.284D+00 -0.103D-01 -0.247D+00
                       -0.105D-02  0.114D-01 -0.411D-03 -0.990D-02

             INCOME     0.115D+00  0.115D+00  0.115D+00 -0.600D-01
                        0.803D-02  0.283D-01  0.314D-02 -0.394D-01
                        0.148D-06  0.521D-06  0.579D-07 -0.727D-06

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 BUS         CONSTANT  -0.435D+01 -0.310D+01 -0.932D+01  0.201D+01
                       -0.303D+00 -0.761D+00 -0.254D+00  0.132D+01
                       -0.303D+00 -0.761D+00 -0.254D+00  0.132D+01

             BUS_CTT    0.963D-01  0.963D-01 -0.343D+01  0.963D-01
                        0.671D-02  0.236D-01 -0.937D-01  0.634D-01
                        0.263D-03  0.925D-03 -0.367D-02  0.248D-02

             BUS_TTT    0.500D-01  0.500D-01 -0.178D+01  0.500D-01
                        0.348D-02  0.123D-01 -0.486D-01  0.329D-01
                        0.115D-04  0.403D-04 -0.160D-03  0.108D-03

             BUS_FR    -0.418D-01 -0.418D-01  0.149D+01 -0.418D-01
                       -0.292D-02 -0.103D-01  0.407D-01 -0.275D-01
                       -0.246D-03 -0.867D-03  0.344D-02 -0.233D-02

             INCOME     0.115D+00  0.115D+00  0.115D+00 -0.600D-01
                        0.803D-02  0.283D-01  0.314D-02 -0.394D-01
                        0.148D-06  0.521D-06  0.579D-07 -0.727D-06

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 CAR         CAR_C      0.232D+01  0.232D+01  0.232D+01 -0.121D+01
                        0.162D+00  0.570D+00  0.634D-01 -0.795D+00
                        0.266D-02  0.936D-02  0.104D-02 -0.131D-01

             CAR_RT     0.120D+01  0.120D+01  0.120D+01 -0.627D+00
                        0.840D-01  0.296D+00  0.329D-01 -0.412D+00
                        0.388D-03  0.137D-02  0.152D-03 -0.191D-02

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 probability p(i)          0.0697     0.2453     0.0273     0.6577

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





 weighted aggregate :

   - elasticity

   - change in p(i) relative to percent change in x(j,k)

   - derivative of p(i) with respect to x(j,k)

 =====================================================================================================================================

 probability of :        RAIL       AIR        BUS        CAR       

 =====================================================================================================================================

 RAIL        CONSTANT  -0.462D+01 -0.143D+01 -0.968D+01  0.618D+00
                       -0.425D+00 -0.521D+00 -0.511D+00  0.442D+00
                       -0.425D+00 -0.521D+00 -0.511D+00  0.442D+00

             RAI_CTT   -0.318D+01  0.152D+00  0.209D+00  0.109D+00
                       -0.291D+00  0.826D-01  0.167D-01  0.877D-01
                       -0.723D-02  0.123D-02  0.379D-03  0.223D-02

             RAI_TTT   -0.165D+01  0.787D-01  0.108D+00  0.564D-01
                       -0.151D+00  0.429D-01  0.866D-02  0.455D-01
                       -0.721D-03  0.117D-03  0.351D-04  0.224D-03

             RAI_FR     0.138D+01 -0.658D-01 -0.906D-01 -0.472D-01
                        0.126D+00 -0.359D-01 -0.724D-02 -0.381D-01
                        0.259D-01 -0.889D-02 -0.208D-02 -0.894D-02

             INCOME     0.126D+00  0.547D-01  0.134D+00 -0.163D-01
                        0.118D-01  0.201D-01  0.662D-02 -0.112D-01
                        0.253D-06  0.450D-06  0.193D-06 -0.260D-06

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AIR         CONSTANT  -0.462D+01 -0.143D+01 -0.968D+01  0.618D+00
                       -0.425D+00 -0.521D+00 -0.511D+00  0.442D+00
                       -0.425D+00 -0.521D+00 -0.511D+00  0.442D+00

             AIR_CTT    0.522D+00 -0.131D+01  0.419D+00  0.162D+00
                        0.406D-01 -0.509D+00  0.338D-01  0.898D-01
                        0.270D-03 -0.303D-02  0.232D-03  0.618D-03

             AIR_TTT    0.271D+00 -0.682D+00  0.218D+00  0.840D-01
                        0.211D-01 -0.264D+00  0.175D-01  0.466D-01
                        0.137D-03 -0.164D-02  0.121D-03  0.326D-03

             AIR_FR    -0.227D+00  0.571D+00 -0.182D+00 -0.703D-01
                       -0.176D-01  0.221D+00 -0.147D-01 -0.390D-01
                       -0.848D-03  0.877D-02 -0.928D-03 -0.296D-02

             INCOME     0.126D+00  0.547D-01  0.134D+00 -0.163D-01
                        0.118D-01  0.201D-01  0.662D-02 -0.112D-01
                        0.253D-06  0.450D-06  0.193D-06 -0.260D-06

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 BUS         CONSTANT  -0.462D+01 -0.143D+01 -0.968D+01  0.618D+00
                       -0.425D+00 -0.521D+00 -0.511D+00  0.442D+00
                       -0.425D+00 -0.521D+00 -0.511D+00  0.442D+00

             BUS_CTT    0.106D+00  0.620D-01 -0.333D+01  0.586D-01
                        0.123D-01  0.208D-01 -0.184D+00  0.480D-01
                        0.627D-03  0.717D-03 -0.852D-02  0.234D-02

             BUS_TTT    0.551D-01  0.321D-01 -0.173D+01  0.304D-01
                        0.640D-02  0.108D-01 -0.954D-01  0.249D-01
                        0.283D-04  0.318D-04 -0.388D-03  0.108D-03

             BUS_FR    -0.461D-01 -0.269D-01  0.144D+01 -0.254D-01
                       -0.536D-02 -0.904D-02  0.799D-01 -0.208D-01
                       -0.485D-03 -0.761D-03  0.456D-02 -0.128D-02

             INCOME     0.126D+00  0.547D-01  0.134D+00 -0.163D-01
                        0.118D-01  0.201D-01  0.662D-02 -0.112D-01
                        0.253D-06  0.450D-06  0.193D-06 -0.260D-06

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 CAR         CAR_C      0.255D+01  0.110D+01  0.270D+01 -0.329D+00
                        0.238D+00  0.406D+00  0.133D+00 -0.225D+00
                        0.542D-02  0.478D-02  0.273D-02 -0.529D-02

             CAR_RT     0.132D+01  0.572D+00  0.140D+01 -0.171D+00
                        0.123D+00  0.211D+00  0.692D-01 -0.117D+00
                        0.733D-03  0.705D-03  0.382D-03 -0.742D-03

 =====================================================================================================================================





 prediction success table

 =====================================================================================================================================

 alternative   RAIL      AIR       BUS       CAR       obs.count obs.share 

 =====================================================================================================================================

 RAIL            2.20      5.04      0.53     25.31     33.08      0.04

 AIR             4.56     73.85      1.17     34.40    113.98      0.12

 BUS             0.66      1.14      0.86     14.17     16.83      0.02

 CAR            25.66     33.94     14.28    701.48    775.36      0.83

 pred.count     33.08    113.98     16.83    775.36    939.26      1.00

 pred.share      0.04      0.12      0.02      0.83      1.00

 p.s.p.          0.07      0.65      0.05      0.90      0.83

 p.s.i.          0.03      0.53      0.03      0.08      0.13

 p.e.p.s.        0.00      0.00      0.00      0.00

 =====================================================================================================================================


 notes :

 obs.    : observed

 pred.   : predicted

 p.s.p.  : proportion successfully predicted

 p.s.i.  : prediction success index

 p.e.p.s.: proportional error in predicted share


CPU TIME:      0.53 sec
